The Week in Bitcoin - September 28 – October 4, 2026
Bitcoin closed at $86,246, 28% below our $120,000 base case and 23% above our $70,000 bear case.
Reaching the base case now requires a 39% gain with roughly 12 weeks left in 2026.
The Week in Bitcoin
Top story of the week
The US added 29,000 jobs in September as unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Payroll growth came in well below the 84,000 forecast, reducing expectations for an October Fed rate hike and easing near-term monetary-policy pressure on Bitcoin.
Other headlines this week
Institutional access moved forward in the US and UK.
The SEC proposed new crypto-custody rules for registered advisers and regulated funds, including a framework for state trust custodians and limited self-custody when no permitted custodian is available.
In the UK, the FCA opened applications for its new crypto-authorization regime, with existing firms advised to apply by February 28, 2027.
Long-term borrowing costs remained elevated.
UK 30-year gilt yields rose above 6% for the first time since 1998, reinforcing the contrast between expectations for easier short-term monetary policy and continued pressure at the long end of the bond market.
Bitcoin ETF demand remained strong despite a late-week reversal.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion of net inflows in September, their second-largest monthly inflow since October 2025.
A subsequent $149 million daily outflow ended a nine-day streak that had attracted roughly $3 billion.
What it means
The week modestly improved Bitcoin’s setup: macro pressure eased at the margin while institutional participation continued to deepen. But financial conditions remain tight, making this a constructive shift rather than a clear change in regime.
From here, the key is confirmation: sustained ETF demand alongside easing long-term yields would strengthen the case that the backdrop is turning more supportive.
Market Brief
Bitcoin closed the week at $86,246, with a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion and 1,159 sats per dollar.
Bitcoin gained 2.39% for the week, rising from $84,236 to $86,246. The more important signal was where it finished: Sunday marked the highest daily close since January 28 and the highest weekly close since the week of January 12.
That strengthens near-term momentum and puts the focus on whether Bitcoin can hold these levels and convert the move into a sustained advance.
Our market view
We anchor the next one to two weeks on the $80,600 November 2025 low.
Bitcoin has held above it and the 1-year moving average since September 18, 2026. The higher weekly close strengthens our near-term view, with $100,000 the first major resistance before our $120,000 base case.
Holding $80,000: We expect an $80,000–$100,000 range, with an advance toward the upper end more likely than a return to support.
Below $80,000: A break would shift focus to the $78,945–$79,279 zone, the 50-day and 1-year moving averages.
Above $100,000: The next key level is $108,287, the 2024 all-time high. A sustained break above it would strengthen the path toward our $120,000 base case.
Seasonal Context
October is off to a stronger-than-usual start, gaining 3.48% through October 4 versus a historical same-date median of -0.03%. That follows a 6.11% September, the third-best September in the 15-year sample.
Bitcoin has now posted three consecutive positive months since June’s -20.96% decline, improving the seasonal trend into the fourth quarter.
For the year, Bitcoin remains down 1.20%. Returning to flat requires only a 1.21% gain, while matching the historical median full-year return of 107.05% would require a much larger move from here. We treat that historical path as context, not a target.
Looking Ahead
October 14: September CPI. The next major inflation test after softer employment data; we watch whether it supports a less restrictive Fed path.
October 27–28: Federal Reserve meeting. The rate decision and forward guidance are the month’s main macro catalyst for Bitcoin.
October 28, 2026: Strategy holds a special shareholder meeting on daily dividends for STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD; we watch whether the proposed payout schedule improves their appeal.
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