The Week in Bitcoin - October 5-11, 2026
Bitcoin closed the week at $83,337, 31% below our $120,000 base case and 19% above our $70,000 bear case.
Reaching the base case by December 31, 2026 requires a 44% rally, with 11 weeks remaining.
The Week in Bitcoin
Top story of the week
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $729 million in two days.
Investors withdrew $729 million from US spot Bitcoin ETFs across Wednesday and Thursday, signaling renewed selling pressure and a setback for one of Bitcoin’s primary channels of institutional demand.
Other headlines this week
The Federal Reserve signals further monetary tightening.
Minutes from September’s meeting showed officials anticipating another interest rate increase, though the timing remains uncertain.
Higher borrowing costs could continue to constrain dollar liquidity and weigh on Bitcoin’s near-term market outlook.
Thailand expands regulated access to Bitcoin ETFs.
The country’s securities regulator approved rules allowing locally listed Bitcoin and ether ETFs beginning October 16, opening a new channel for investors to gain regulated exposure through domestic asset managers, subject to custody and trading requirements.
Ledger investigates reported wallet losses in Southeast Asia.
Ledger requested a pause in reseller sales and shipments following reports of customer losses.
The company said its initial investigation found no evidence of a breach of its own systems, with the cause of the incident still under investigation.
What it means
Bitcoin faces near-term pressure from ETF outflows and tighter monetary conditions, even as regulated access continues to expand. New investment channels support long-term adoption, but their impact depends on sustained investor demand and confidence in custody infrastructure.
A return to consistent ETF inflows and a more accommodative Federal Reserve would signal improving liquidity conditions and stronger institutional demand for Bitcoin.
Market Brief
Bitcoin closed the week at $83,337, with a market capitalization of $1.67 trillion and 1,200 sats per dollar.
Bitcoin fell from Monday’s $86,213 open to Sunday’s $83,337 close, returning -3.34% for the week.
A late-week recovery from Thursday’s lowest close of $81,650 still left it below Monday’s highest close of $86,018.
The recovery limits the damage but does not establish renewed upward momentum, leaving buyers with more to prove.
Our market view
Last week’s $80,000 floor held, but our expectation of a move toward the upper end missed.
Bitcoin has closed above its 50-day moving average since August 17, 2026; that average now sits at $80,864. This week’s retreat favors another test of support over an immediate advance.
Holding $80,000: We expect an $80,000–$100,000 range, with another test of the lower end more likely than an advance toward resistance.
Below $80,000: We expect a test of the $78,604 1-year moving average; losing it brings the $70,000–$74,313 support cluster, including short-term holders’ cost basis, into focus.
Above $100,000: We expect a test of $108,287, the 2024 all-time high.
Seasonal Context
October’s early gains have faded: the month-to-date return through October 11 is 0%, below the same-date median of 0.24%.
That places 2026 at 7th of 13 Octobers at this date, near the middle of the historical record.
Following three consecutive monthly gains from July through September, October has started flat, interrupting the recovery’s momentum.
Bitcoin’s year-to-date return through October 11 is -4.53%, against a same-date median of 47.74%. The weekly change of -3.33 percentage points has deepened the year’s loss.
Looking Ahead
October 14, 2026 — US September CPI: Watch whether inflation supports the Fed’s tightening bias or gives officials a reason to reconsider the pace of restraint.
October 16, 2026 — Thailand ETF rules take effect: Watch for fund-launch announcements that turn regulatory permission into usable Bitcoin investment access.
October 28, 2026 — Federal Reserve decision: Watch whether officials act on the tightening bias identified in September’s minutes or leave rates unchanged.
October 28, 2026: Strategy holds a special shareholder meeting on daily dividends for STRC, STRF, STRK and STRD; Watch whether changes to preferred-share dividends strengthen Strategy’s ability to attract capital for future Bitcoin purchases.
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