The Week in Bitcoin - October 12–18, 2026
We end the week with Bitcoin at $81,845, 32% below our $120,000 base case and 17% above our $70,000 bear case. With 10 weeks remaining, reaching our base case requires a 47% rally by year end.
Last week’s call held: Bitcoin closed every day inside our $80,600-$86,130 range and retested the lower end, as we expected.
Weekly News Recap
Top story of the week
US inflation reaches 3.7% as Bitcoin falls below $82,000
Inflation ran hotter than expected in September. Consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, and producer prices climbed 6.3%, the fastest since 2022, reinforcing the case for tighter Fed policy.
Markets added to rate-hike bets and lifted the dollar to its highest since May 2025, raising the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.
Other headlines this week
Quantum planning. Coinbase wants Bitcoin’s post-quantum planning to account for institutional custody.
Coinbase, which says it holds roughly 5% of Bitcoin, set out priorities for a post-quantum transition, including hybrid keys and custodial signing. Coinbase calls it a discussion input, not an agreed upgrade.
AI selloff. Stress in AI stocks spread into credit markets.
Bank access. Bitcoin is moving inside the banking system.
Standard Chartered launched direct Bitcoin trading for eligible affluent UAE clients through their bank accounts, and Kraken’s parent Payward agreed to buy Lithuania’s Saldo Bank to add deposits, lending and payments; closing is expected in 2027.
Treasury company financing. Index eligibility is now a funding risk for Bitcoin treasury companies.
MSCI’s adopted eligibility screen identifies Strategy and Metaplanet as potential November deletions. The final list is due November 11, with changes implemented at the November 30 close.
Custody security. Hardware tampering and follow-on scams threaten Bitcoin self-custody.
Mark Karpelès reported implants in Ledger devices from Metapod and MediaMarkt, while Ledger said German retail stock it inspected was clean. Exposure beyond CryptoBilis remains disputed, with phishing and fake-app losses also reported.
What it means
Taken together, the week's news weighs on Bitcoin demand in the near term. Banks are opening new routes to buyers, but those buyers face higher rate expectations and an AI selloff that has spread into credit.
Possible index exclusions could weaken demand for treasury companies’ shares, making equity financing for further Bitcoin purchases less attractive. A softer Fed outlook and steady buying through banks would change that picture.
Market Brief
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,845, with a market capitalization of $1.65 trillion and 1,222 sats per US dollar.
From Monday’s $83,391 open to Sunday’s $81,845 close, the weekly return was -1.85%. Tuesday’s rebound to an $83,190 close failed to hold, and the week ended below that recovery despite Sunday’s modest bounce.
The failed rebound leaves upside momentum unconfirmed and suggests buyers are still defending ground rather than establishing a stronger trend.
Our market view
Bitcoin has remained below the $86,130 2025 Breakout Pivot since October 5, keeping the price trend in sellers’ favor. Over the next one to two weeks, another test of nearby support is more likely than a sustained recovery.
Holding $80,600: We expect trading between the November 2025 low at $80,600 and the 2025 Breakout Pivot at $86,130, weighted toward the lower end.
Below $80,600: We expect a test of the $78,061 1-year moving average.
Above $86,100: Reclaiming the $86,130 2025 Breakout Pivot would bring the $93,638 2026 High Weekly Close into focus.
Seasonal Context
Through October 18, Bitcoin returned -1.80% month to date, trailing its same-date historical median of 4.72% by 6.52 percentage points.
Recent Octobers have been less buoyant: the 4-year average return is 10.26%, against the long-run 17.77% for completed months.
Bitcoin’s year-to-date return stands at -6.24%, leaving the recovery incomplete as year end approaches. Finishing flat would require a 6.66% rally, making breakeven the more immediate recovery milestone.
Looking Ahead
October 28 — Fed rate decision: We watch whether the decision and guidance reinforce the tighter-rate expectations that followed September’s inflation report.
October 29 — September PCE inflation: The next inflation reading will help test whether price pressure remains broad enough to keep Bitcoin’s funding backdrop restrictive.
November 6 — October jobs report: Labor-market strength will help assess how much room policymakers have to sustain tighter policy.
Follow the Bitcoin market between issues
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